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[Weekly stock outlook] or the Japanese economy deflation? Expand the return height of the post-bubble is consciousness

[Weekly stock outlook] or the Japanese economy deflation? Expand the return height of the post-bubble is consciousness

29 October 2017 | 10:00 am

Last week becomes a rise of 7 consecutive weeks, Ltd. of Japan, finished the trade to update the 22,008 yen 45 sen and the year-to-date high of Nikkei Stock Average 550 yen in the week High It was. 22,000 yen since July 5, 1996 21 years and three months the first time. Began from October 2, the Nikkei average of Rento record became history longest 16 days in a row. Although Rento was broken once in 25 days, it did not put the 26, 27 days and 2 days in a row height and diapers seems to diapers. Friday almost highs closed at one stage high from even though the afternoon weekend. This week’s high stock was closed taste to be expected. High stock of Catalyst is, ① the world economy strong a risk on the world’s stock markets, ② significantly the foreigner from fundamentals strong in undervalued Japanese net purchases, ③ general election in the Liberal Democratic Party victory, calming of the geopolitical risk, ④ circle the progress of the cheap is it mainly due. Japan 4 – real GDP in June significantly higher than the 2.5% of the market expected 4% increase per annum, was the rise of 6 consecutive quarters for the first time in 11 years. Postage, courier, price increases of a few tens of years, such as beer has been carried out. Nominal GDP finally unplug the bubble period, I was impressed that there is emerging from a long was deflation. Even in corporations statistics, 4 of Japanese companies – ordinary income rate of the June quarter was a record high beyond the bubble period. 7 – are conspicuous upward revision in September of the earnings announcement. Long-term Rento was a sign with a large market filled look back on the past. First 22,666 yen you gave in June 1996 has come into view. Last week retrospective of The Nikkei average is the stretch in succession 15 days to be past the longest 23 days, closing price was 21,696 yen 65 sen before last weekend ratio of 239 yen 01 sen high. It was a victory than expected in the House of Representatives general election of 22 days Tokaihyo. Liberal Democratic Party after the landslide victory of the elections often become high stock, has become over the entire surface high on buying the expected continuation of abenomics such as additional economic stimulus measures before the end of the year. Dollar yen also gave the 114 yen level since July 11, the Tokyo foreign exchange market. Nikkei stretch in succession 16 days to update the past maximum of 24 days, it closed at 21,805 yen 17 sen previous day 108 yen 52 sen higher. Cut off NY Dow is at 6 Rento, depreciation of the yen also dose, but began weakly morning, bargain-hunting enthusiasm turned to strongly increase. Closing higher on buying that appeared in the afternoon with the European system foreigner. Pullback in the Nikkei average is 17 days after interrupted Rento of 25 days, it finished at 21,707 yen 62 sen of the day before ratio of 97 yen 55 sen weaker. NY Dow update the past maximum value. The Nikkei average was also recovered a temporary 21,900 yen in the morning. Refrain from the high price sense of vigilance the ECB regular Council in 26 days, profit-taking in the 22,000 milestone instead of the yen before became dominant. Buying and selling price of the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 3 trillion 315.5 billion yen, the highest level since 3 trillion 443.4 billion yen about 5-month of May 8. It is so swollen buying from individual investors were waiting for dips and domestic institutional investors. Nikkei 26 also repel while slightly, closed at 21,739 yen 78 sen previous day 32 yen 16 sen higher. Although the ECB Council a copy upside follow are not, 17 years 4 to financial results of nine months and conspicuous brand to be revised upwards, it is a strong desire to buy diapers from the expected performance expansion. The Nikkei average of 27 days continued to grow, finished trade at 22,008 yen 45 sen in the previous day 268 yen 67 sen high. The ECB regular Council but tapering was announced, relaxed pace was spread is gradual and buying peace of mind than expected. Dollar yen was wearing a 114 yen 31 sen time since 23 days. Buying and selling price of the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 3 trillion 100.8 billion yen and the high level. Looking back at the last week of overseas markets US stocks stretch in succession of 27 days, NY Dow closed at 23,434 US dollars 33 dollars high. Was 105 US dollars sales in the seven weeks continuous high in the week. Amazon to 26 days after the close, announced the FANG brand is a good balance sheet, which has led the US stocks such as Google, high Nasdaq composite index of high-tech ratio soared 2.2 percent to update the past maximum value. Dollar yen was with a weak yen level since the morning 114 yen 45 sen and 11 July. And that the GDP of the US July-September quarter is higher than the market expected, the circle by Spanish Senate has become the euro against the dollar in that it has approved the autonomy stop of Catalonia, were sold. However, the dollar circle of NY market by Powell Chairman of doves for rate hikes in the successor HR of FRB chairman was dominant and Tsutaerae is closed at 113 yen 75 sen, about 36 sen from 114 yen 11 sen shrinkage of the Tokyo market circle high has advanced. The average nighttime trading of futures Nikkei, sidelines mood becomes strong in the yen, it was 22,030 yen of 20 yen depreciation shrinkage ratio of Osaka futures. Shares outlook of this week This week’s Nikkei average main scenario assumes a range of 21,790 yen to 22,200 yen. The Nikkei average was recorded in the past longest Rento at 16 Rento. 60 years of the 14 Rento later, Japan’s stock prices become a good business climate in the Income Doubling Plan of Ikeda prime minister has raised significantly. 88 years of 13 after Rento was raised largely in the bubble. Historical long-term Rento suggests the subsequent stock sales. Last week the Nikkei average closed taste was something to be feeling this week’s stock prices. By chasing strong performance presentations and high price is basically upward revision has noticeably flagship company, it would be likely to update the subsequent bubble return high price in the future. However, it will not be a rise in the only straight line this week declined to 3 day weekend of the culture of the day. The Nikkei average is moving to the 2α of the Bollinger band to the upper limit of the range. 2α is located on the current 22,081 yen, I want scene speed adjustment. It once scuffles unlikely to be 20,000 2,500 yen before a psychological resistance line as the enlargement above in the progress of the weaker yen. If you have adjusted, the possibility to finish in the short-term adjustment of up to 5-day moving average line of 21,790 yen is seen as high. Although the deviation from the 25-day moving average line which is more than 4%, which is 4.8% and the risk waters, the soaring period of 17 years from November to December of Trump rally sometimes was over 6.1%, overheating feeling because it has raised and carefully in spite of Rento is small. Expensive feeling compared to the PER is the United States of 18 times in about 15 times in the valuation surface is small. Risk factor is US policy factors. The day the US tax reform proposals is presented. In addition to up to three days ahead of the Trump presidential visit to Japan from the five days, it determines the successor HR of FRB chairman. Depending on the contents of the two big events there is a possibility that the global risk-on to dose. Tax reform, already previously announced tax cuts as well as tax cuts Ripatori of policy to 20% corporate income tax. Ripatori tax cuts dollar-yen depreciation factor. When underwent Ripatori tax cuts in 2004, stock of foreign earnings reserves are often the United States the world’s high-tech companies are bought, the Nasdaq index was up big. In the successor HR of FRB chairman, Woshu original FRB director, Taylor FRB director if the yen’s depreciation, it would be a high possibility of the yen if Powell FRB director or Ieren chairman reappointed. In this week’s event, there is a US-Japan monetary policy meeting. 30-31 day Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, 31-1 day’s FOMC. Both attention than usual policy deferred the consensus is low. The two days will be announced the financial policy of the United Kingdom. In Japan, from the special Diet session convened the day, headed nomination, form a new government becomes the material. The two days investment performance of the July-September quarter of the GPIF is published. Tax reform proposals in one day in the United States, the most important event is the successor personnel announcement of FRB chairman to be announced in up to 3 days. Week after next of 5-7 days is the Japan-US summit meeting. The November 3 iPhoneX of Apple will be released. The Tokyo Motor Show to 5 days. 3 days 3 consecutive holidays in the day Japan is a culture. The economic indicators in Japan, industrial production in September to 31 days, September Family Income and Expenditure Survey, sales of new cars a day, there is a consumer trend survey of 10 May to 2 days. US October CB consumer confidence index in China manufacturing PMI, GDP in the euro area 7-9 May, 1 day to 31 days in foreign countries, the US October ADP employment statistics, the US October ISM manufacturing business confidence index in 1 day US October new car sales, the US October employment statistics in three days, the US September trade balance, US October ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index is noted. In the earnings announcement of Japan’s attention, in 30 days Nintendo, Panasonic to 31 days, Sony, Tokyo Electron, Itochu to Honda, KDDI, 2 days to 1 day, and the like Bussan. In the United settlement affecting Japanese companies, Tesla of the day, Qualcomm, Face book, two days Apple attention. Kazuo Hirata After graduating from Keio University, small-cap analyst of Japanese stocks in the international part of the securities company, worked as a derivatives trader. After London resident, Transferred to foreign securities. Domestic and foreign institutional investors, to such as hedge funds, as Japanese stocks top sales trader, market analysis, carried out the operational advice, such as stocks recommended. It is currently advising asset management primarily to individuals. [Recommended article of the editorial department] – the knowledge of adult skin care to be at the forefront – “Marui is not a department store”, “3 million yen more than Super Mario” ZUU Online8_tsukikijirankingu – in the era has changed the appeal of gold as an investment that does not change? – Article 5 election want to read in front of the home purchase | correct or residential purchase of up to five times annual income? · NISA account Top Picks, banks and securities recommended Which is?

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