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Candid advice is "very important that the government and the Bank of Japan faces in a consistent attitude" from the Bank of Japan

Candid advice is "very important that the government and the Bank of Japan faces in a consistent attitude" from the Bank of Japan

9 November 2017 | 2:58 am

Sinker: 9 opposite the Kataoka Jury at-October of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting to maintain the status quo of the policy argument is, as long as it is a combination of fiscal austerity and monetary easing, such as the status quo, 2% of the achievement of the inflation target it is difficult, toward deflation completely break away, it would be the implications of further strong cooperation of the government and the Bank of Japan is required. And, if you achieve a 2% inflation target in only the Bank of Japan, at the logic that it is insufficient in the current monetary easing. So far, orders for fiscal policy of the government from the Bank of Japan was not much heard. Not only that, the expansion of the monetary easing is kill two birds with one stone leading to deflation and financial improvement, for the sake of monetary easing and fiscal austerity that deflation completely break away is in the non-logical framework, the Bank of Japan has been repeatedly forced to unreasonable It seems to be. Appeal that in order to strengthen the current monetary easing effects that limit is felt, it is necessary to expand fiscal policy was also firm in means, is considered to be a ball of to the government from the Bank of Japan, which is the first time thrown. In the main opinion of the September decision meeting, and “towards the realization of the target of 2% of price stability, the government and the Bank of Japan is very important that the face in a consistent attitude”, the basic fiscal balance of short-term criticism and take remarks surplus to hasty government that has not taken a consistent attitude in austerity aimed at also seen. In addition, upon reaching the last full employment and excess demand, and result in a financial to austerity, while unexpected put in a virtuous cycle, the economy is also believed to be a wake-up call to the fact that the risk of resulting in a peak-out increases. Strong improvement of productivity is the initial of the economic expansion that have not yet entered the virtuous cycle is currently not yet able to confirm that the economic growth rate becomes persistently strong, significant improvement of investment activity becomes strong productivity of companies until it is confirmed, it is shown that that should not be hasty to tighten economic policy. “Full employment = austerity is immediately necessary to” does not mean that. In the main opinion of the September decision meeting, there is pointed out that “if rises stacked excessively internal reserves of the company, in a state of excess savings economy as a whole, natural rate of interest is likely to decline”, Nature the interest rate is raised, in order to strongly monetary easing effect represented by the gap between the actual rates are implicitly pointed out the need to reduce the excess savings overall economy by fiscal expansion. Once more to the sufficient fiscal expansion eliminate the “excessive supply capacity to the capital and the labor market”, Kataoka deliberation committee also when the monetary easing effect is sufficient, is expected to change in favor of the status quo. In the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting in September and October, “the aim of realizing the goal of 2% of price stability, which up to the time required to sustain stable”, short-term overshoot of the target acceptable and the monetary base “long and short interest rate operation with, quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” including the expansion policy of continued, -0.1% about some of the interest rate of the bank of Japan current account balances, the long-term interest rates to be about 0.0% policy status quo was determined by 8-to-1. Newly added Kataoka deliberation committee from September, has voted against the status quo in both meetings. Proceedings in the summary and the main opinion, would be to explore the background of the negative vote of Kataoka deliberation committee. Kataoka deliberation committee, because the excessive supply capacity in the “capital and labor markets in September are still present, the monetary easing effect under the current yield curve, the 2 percent of the inflation rate to around 2019 fiscal year claiming to be insufficient “to achieve. In the proceedings Summary of September, “it and that compared with the 1990s, the employment rate has dropped, after pointed out that the number of people that want to work among the non-labor force population is large, too large in the labor market has remained in Do not supply capacity, the time being, wage pressure is limited “, in any of the” capital and labor markets, the opinion of a large supply capacity is seen as remaining “was seen. In addition Kataoka deliberation committee, in October it is “from the viewpoint of strengthening the overshoot type commitment, in the case of deviation rear is achieved time of the goals of price stability by domestic factors, appropriate that the additional monetary easing to take measures.” They argue that. In the proceedings Summary of September, “since 2018, it is likely to continue to increase the rate of rise towards 2% lower at the moment” is the opinion that was seen. And, “for the achievement of the goal of price stability can be time-consuming of the corresponding, in the future, in addition to it is considered to come increasingly more important to ensure the sustainability of the policy, the more time-consuming opinion of the external environment it is necessary to be aware also that the uncertainty increases of “was also seen. One of the reasons of price stagnation, rather than had no effect of abenomics, will should not be neglected that there is a positive development that because the effect is there is the potential growth rate were higher than I thought . In the estimate of the Cabinet Office, the potential growth rate of 2016 10 – confirmed that, which has been a + 1.0% in the December quarter stage, up from + 0.8% around 2012 before the abenomics begins there. Looking at the rising contribution of the contents of the potential growth rate, labor input has improved from -0.1% to + 0.3%, the contribution of employment expansion of women, elderly and young people is a pillar of the growth strategy of abenomics is quite large it has been confirmed. The contribution of labor input due to declining birthrate and aging population and the economic downturn has been followed by a minus, 1990 4 – has turned positive since June period. If the opposite view, still supply capacity in the labor market will be to support the claim of Kataoka deliberation committee that remains. While the input of labor has increased significantly, rising wages will not be strong. In the future, efficiency and labor-saving due to serious employment shortage, and in that cost reduction is the limit, need to increase the top line in order to maintain the increased sales ratio of ordinary income highest in the past it has been an acceleration of the increase in corporate capital investment is expected. The contribution of the rise in the future potential growth rate, should come on behalf of the accumulation of capital from labor. If this is also the opposite of the view, still supply capacity is to support the claim of Kataoka deliberation committee that remains in the capital market. The initial economic expansion is input, in productivity in the late, so that the potential growth rate rises. That the input has increased significantly, it means that the supply capacity is expanding, not strongly rising prices. In the full employment and excess demand, the potential when the investment activity has become stronger, which aims to improve the productivity, along with the workers climb the learning curve, equipment that new technology has been utilized is birth to synergy, the improvement of productivity further increase in the growth rate, the economic growth rate there is a rule of thumb that continuously stronger virtuous cycle is born. In that aspect, an increase in productivity wages also significantly increased as a background, also born feeling of economic expansion to households, it would be to achieve the deflation completely break away. With an increase in the overall demand by economic expansion, considering that the productivity of the above is gentle is common, no hasty financial stringency, if economic expansion continues, inflation accelerated It is likely to continue to. However, it takes a considerable amount of time, as is claimed by Kataoka deliberation committee to reach up there, the further expansion of aggregate demand, including the financial relief is required in order to accelerate its movement. The proceedings gist of September, be in a expected to excessive supply capacity in the “capital and labor market are still present, and also Given that the increase in the consumption tax rate to 10 May 2019 are scheduled, in order to increase the prices sufficiently, opinion that it is necessary to demand a one-stage “was observed. Claims of Kataoka deliberation committee, as long as it is a combination of fiscal austerity and monetary easing, such as the current situation, achieving the 2% of the price target is difficult, toward deflation completely break away, requires further strong cooperation of the government and the Bank of Japan it would be the sense that it is. And, if you achieve a 2% inflation target in only the Bank of Japan, at the logic that it is insufficient in the current monetary easing. So far, orders for fiscal policy of the government from the Bank of Japan was not much heard. Not only that, the expansion of the monetary easing is kill two birds with one stone leading to deflation and financial improvement, for the sake of monetary easing and fiscal austerity that deflation completely break away is in the non-logical framework, the Bank of Japan has been repeatedly forced to unreasonable It seems to be. Appeal that in order to strengthen the current monetary easing effects that limit is felt, it is necessary to expand fiscal policy was also firm in means, is considered to be a ball of to the government from the Bank of Japan, which is the first time thrown. In the main opinion of the September decision meeting, and “towards the realization of the target of 2% of price stability, the government and the Bank of Japan is very important that the face in a consistent attitude”, the basic fiscal balance of short-term criticism and take remarks surplus to hasty government that has not taken a consistent attitude in austerity aimed at also seen. In addition, upon reaching the last full employment and excess demand, and result in a financial to austerity, while unexpected put in a virtuous cycle, the economy is also believed to be a wake-up call to the fact that the risk of resulting in a peak-out increases. Strong improvement of productivity is the initial of the economic expansion that have not yet entered the virtuous cycle is currently not yet able to confirm that the economic growth rate becomes persistently strong, significant improvement of investment activity becomes strong productivity of companies until it is confirmed, it is shown that that should not be hasty to tighten economic policy. “Full employment = austerity is immediately necessary to” does not mean that. In the main opinion of the September decision meeting, there is pointed out that “if rises stacked excessively internal reserves of the company, in a state of excess savings economy as a whole, natural rate of interest is likely to decline”, Nature the interest rate is raised, in order to strongly monetary easing effect represented by the gap between the actual rate, offsetting the need to reduce the excess savings overall economy by fiscal expansion it has also been implicitly pointed out. Once more to the sufficient fiscal expansion eliminate the “excessive supply capacity to the capital and the labor market”, Kataoka deliberation committee also when the monetary easing effect is sufficient, is expected to change in favor of the status quo. Societe Generale Securities Co., Ltd. Research Department chief economist Takuji Aida [Recommended article of the editorial department] – the knowledge of adult skin care to be at the forefront – light and dark divided the “Uniqlo” Why performance of “Shimamura”? – Skilled business person does not put the fat on the body, put to work. – Article 5 election want to read in front of the home purchase | correct or residential purchase of up to five times annual income? · Thorough introduction to the choice of securities by Day-trading service for

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