1 – March 31, deceleration of 2 consecutive years in reaction to the election special demand last year to 6.4% YoY

1 - March 31, deceleration of 2 consecutive years in reaction to the election special demand last year to 6.4% YoY

18 May 2017 | 10:33 am

Lower than the year ended March 31, real GDP growth rate of year-on-year 6.4% increase of the , in addition to the decrease from the 6.6% increase in the previous fiscal year, the market expected the – 2017 1 It was . 1 – net income from the year ended March 31 overseas 3.9% increase said that was increased slightly and, still weak in the gross national income is the same 5.9% increase was a slightly lower level as. In terms of demand items, mainly slowdown in the public sector has led to a reduction in growth rate. Private consumption grew by 5.7% increase was decreased. Looking at the breakdown of private consumption, food and beverages and housing and utilities , restaurants, hotels while has risen, communication and transportation is down the whole greatly reduced. Government consumption by 0.2% increase was decreased. It was reduced in response to the delay of reaction and budget execution from the same period last year, which has been pushed up by the presidential election-related spending of last year. Gross fixed capital formation decreased and 11.8% increase, from 18.5% increase in high-level while also the previous fiscal year. First of all capital investment is the 12.5% ​​increase growth to have slowed down significantly. Looking at the breakdown of capital investment, although general industrial machinery has remained at a high level, transport equipment and industrial special machinery were slowed. On the other hand, construction investment is 9.9% increase was raised with two quarters. Although public construction investment has remained at a high level to single digits in 8 quarters, private construction investment has pushed up the overall strong . For net exports, first exports 20.3% increase was raised with. Looking at the export breakdown of, goods exports 22.3% increase and, flagship electronic components and semiconductor, in addition to rise to around a computer, also service exports 14.3% increase , and remained strong in the center of the BPO industry. On the other hand, imports rose from 15.4% increase of 17.5% increase from the previous year. Result, contribution to net export rate of growth and ▲ 0.2 percentage points, an increase of 2.0% points from the previous year, minus width is reduced. In terms of supply items, it can be seen that slowing the service sector and industrial, which accounts for approximately 60% of GDP is led to a reduction in the growth rate . Service sector 6.8% increase was slightly decreased with. Although the financial and commercial rises, and real estate transport and communications , government and defense was reduced . Industrial is the same 6.1% increase was decreased. Electrical machinery and office equipment were strong manufacturing industry is, although the metals has recorded double-digit growth, the construction industry electricity, gas and water together with has slowed around the public sector supply industry is sluggish. In addition, mining and quarrying was significantly reduced in the center of the nickel and crude oil and natural gas. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry year-on-year 4.9% increase was raised with. Agriculture is to improve the weather from the previous fiscal year that depressed production under the influence of the typhoon rose to around the rice and corn, turned positive for the first time in two quarters. The water industry is a weak, forestry was a continued significant decline. Although the Philippine economy has continued to high growth rate among the last few years emerging countries in Asia, 1 – growth rate for the year ended March 31, is lower than the government’s growth target and decreased in the second consecutive quarter the results became. However the main cause of the economic slowdown is greatly affected by the recoil from the same period last year, which has been pushed up by the spending of the presidential election, will the Philippine economy is not in the deceleration trend. Although the lower level up to 6 months, 7 – – growth rate of 4 September and later is expected as to capture the growth targets of the government again. For private consumption is to first account for about 70% of GDP, we will continue to remain strong through the expansion of employment. The Philippines last year 10 – and the current account is in deficit in the December quarter, is likely to also peso depreciation advance the future in the wake of additional monetary tightening in the United States. Peso depreciation whereas lead to imported inflation, lead to an increase in the remittances of overseas workers Pesobesu, expected to be one that supports private consumption . Future point is, until where the investment in the slowing trend in the feet will or a high level can be maintained. This high growth in capital investment of up to have a large influence of the business that has been approved in the previous government, has led to double-digit growth at the foot of export. Duterute administration has declared the start of de Tel Tenofovir mix in April, announced that perform a large-scale spending of 3.6 trillion pesos in the next three years through the infrastructure development plan, “Build Build Build”. The infrastructure business is also reviewed advance in terms of how it works. Policy in the previous administration, but delays in the construction of public-private partnership business has been a problem, in the new government to speed up the PPP projects by switching the operation led up to the government construction in the hybrid system left to the private sector I. By lack of infrastructure Philippines has become an impediment to business to improve, increase of foreign capital expansion and tourism industry is expected. However the expansion of fiscal spending is also likely to lead to a slowdown in investment. Duterute president has take over the macro-economic policy of the previous administration, but fiscal policy is different from the previous government and stance. Since the previous government is that advanced the fiscal consolidation, sovereign credit rating of the Philippines by major rating agencies was raised to investment grade. In Duterute administration, rating expanding fiscal deficit in the opposite is as long lowered to speculative level, foreign direct investment could fall. Whether the economic policies of the government comes out with or misfortune out with Gil, you will need to keep an eye on the elapsed. Also worrisome concern of overseas factors. Movement of protectionism in the United Trump administration may adversely affect the remittances of overseas workers is the driving force behind the economy for the Philippines. If illegal aliens, which is to account for about 10% of the in Americas Filipino immigrants with deportation, remittances from the United States is going to be fall. ———— On May 18, the National Statistical Coordination Board has announced the gross domestic product statistics. Previous year decreased from 1.8% increase 1.1% increase from the previous year. Bloomberg survey The Philippines there are many migrant workers overseas. Remittance to the country are recorded as net income from abroad, a large impact on consumption. ———— data of the journal described are those which were obtained and processed from a variety of sources of information, it does not guarantee its accuracy and safety. In addition, this magazine is the information provided by the purpose, of opinions and predictions described, not intended to solicit the engagement or termination of any contract. Makoto Saito NLI Research Institute Economic Research Department researcher [Than Articles NLI Research Institute] · [Southeast Asia] economy ASEAN trade statistics – exports recorded a double-digit increase of 5 consecutive months – [Asia and emerging] Southeast Asia and India’s economic outlook to 17 years is slightly growth rate increase by the demodulation of exports and investment · [Philippines GDP] 10 – 12 months is slowing investment and year-on-year 6.6% increase – private consumption, the deceleration of the first time in seven years – [Indonesia 1 – March period GDP] year-on-year increase of 5.01 percent to 5 percent growth for the first time in two quarters, confirming a steady economy · [Southeast Asia economic] ASEAN Trade Statistics – Exports recorded a double-digit increase of 4 consecutive months


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